Rebel Stakes: Litmus Test returns to the ring against Blackout Time

HOT SPRINGS, Arkansas (Special for Turf Diario).- Bob Baffert’s colt will travel to Oaklawn Park in search of a strong victory and vital points in the race toward the Kentucky Derby

Litmus Test makes the trip to Oaklawn Park in pursuit of Derby points / BENOIT PHOTO

This Sunday’s Rebel Stakes (G2-1,700 m, dirt, US$ 1,000,000 purse) at Oaklawn Park promises to be a hinge on the classic route. With 50-25-15-10-5 points toward the Kentucky Derby (G1), the race usually catapults its protagonists toward the Arkansas Derby (G1) scheduled for March 28.

The focus is on graded winner Litmus Test (Nyquist), who crosses paths again with Blackout Time (Not This Time) almost 5 months after both followed champion Ted Noffey (Into Mischief) in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. The Bob Baffert trainee ended 2025 on a high note: fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and then winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He will be ridden by Flavien Prat and represents a powerful partnership led by SF Racing.

Blackout Time, for his part, reappears after a five-month hiatus. He was a regulatory scratch before the Juvenile and has worked regularly between Fair Grounds and Oaklawn, passing protocols to come off the veterinary list.

“We aren’t even in the Derby picture right now; he’s coming back from a long layoff. We’ll see how good he is,” acknowledged co-owner Lance Gasaway. He is trained by Kenny McPeek and will be ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., the winning duo of the 2024 Derby with Mystik Dan (Goldencents).

While Litmus Test may have a fitness advantage over his old rival, the local factor is a major question mark. Silent Tactic (Tacitus) won the Southwest (G3) on February 6, while Strategic Risk (Noble Bird) won the Smarty Jones (L) on January 3—defeating Silent Tactic himself there by 4 1/2 lengths—before failing in the Southwest. Both belong to John Oxley and are trained by Mark Casse, who hinted that the frozen track and the schedule change may have affected Strategic Risk. Cristian Torres and Javier Castellano repeat as riders.

In the numbers, Silent Tactic (2-2-0 in four starts) and Strategic Risk (3-0-1 in seven) lead the field in earnings. The picture is completed by names with classic placements such as Class President (Uncle Mo)—second in the Swale—and Soldier N Diplomat (Army Mule), who was the runner-up in the Southwest.

The Rebel rarely forgives doubts. It is the prelude to the great event at Oaklawn Park and, many times, the real springboard toward Churchill Downs. Between long-awaited returns, pending scores, and rising local talents, Saturday will tell who is ready to make the big leap.