Lexington Stakes offers last-chance points for the Run for the Roses

The road to the Kentucky Derby makes its final stop this Saturday at Keeneland, offering 20 qualifying points

Confessional installed as morning-line favorite for Lexington Stakes / KEENELAND

LOUISVILLE, KY (Special to Turf Diario)— The road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) rounds its final turn this Saturday at Keeneland. The Lexington Stakes (G3), with its $400,000 purse and a distance of 1,700 meters, brings the curtain down on the preps, offering that last gasp of points for 3-year-old colts still dreaming of glory.

While the point scale (20-10-6-4-2) seems modest compared to the 200-point festivals of previous weeks, recent history shows that the Lexington can be a golden bridge. Examples like My Boy Jack (No Nay Never, 2018) or Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile, 2022) won here to get into the Run for the Roses by the narrowest of margins, while the talented Disarm (Gun Runner, 2023)—now a stallion at Haras Vacación in Argentina—used a third-place finish on this track to add the 6 points that allowed him to achieve a meritorious fourth place in the Derby three weeks later.

From the current roster, the only one with real mathematical chances of qualifying is Confessional (Essential Quality). The Steve Landers Racing colorbearer, coming off a third-place finish in the Virginia Derby, totals 15 units. A victory on Saturday would take him to 35, a figure that currently isn't enough to enter the top 20, but would leave him at the boarding gate waiting for the ever-present last-minute defections.

Brad Cox, who already has the passport guaranteed for Further Ado (Gun Runner), Commandment (Into Mischief), and Fulleffort (Liam's Map), does not rule out a fourth passenger: "If one more manages to make the jump, we will definitely consider it," the trainer confessed.

Curiously, the morning line favorite is not the one who needs the points, but his stablemate: Ezum (2-1). Defending the silks of Shadwell Stable, this son of the double champion Essential Quality comes off a performance that left everyone open-mouthed at Colonial Downs, where he massacred his rivals by almost 20 lengths in a one-turn mile.

Although his maternal half-brother is the notable turf runner Beach Patrol, Ezum has shown total affinity for the dirt. After a joint work at Churchill Downs that left Cox satisfied, both colts are ready to define the contest.

The race presents interesting nuances with Corona de Oro (Bolt d'Oro, 6-1), a winner at Fair Grounds, and the rising The Hell We Did (Authentic, 8-1), arriving from New Mexico. However, all curious eyes are on Decisive Win (Nyquist, 15-1).

Doug O’Neill, a man who knows what it is to win the Derby (I'll Have Another and Nyquist), does not fear challenges: he enters this maiden after a promising fourth-place finish at Santa Anita. The colt, acquired for $600,000, boasts top-level morning works (1m11s1/5 for 1,200 meters) and will seek to emulate what Gosger (Nyquist) did last year: use the Lexington as a springboard for a consecrating performance, perhaps not in the Derby, but in the Preakness Stakes (G1).